THE FUTURE LOOKS UP

Worst Recession since 1975 bottoms in 2010

• National recession focused on households and banks
• Soft housing markets limit migration into Florida 2010
• Broken nest eggs
• Hometown Democracy

Stronger Growth 2011-13

• Improving migration trends
• Stronger housing markets
• Higher rates limit the expansion

 Paradigm shift makes Florida less attractive

• Average annual population growth 200,000 +/- 50,000 depending on business cycle

 Still Florida remains one of the fastest growing states east of the Mississippi

1/20/2010 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

Small and regional banks remain most vulnerable to deeply troubled commercial real estate.

Small and regional banks remain most vulnerable to deeply troubled commercial real estate.

In recent congressional testimony Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chair Sheila Bair indicated the continuing correction in commercial real estate prices constituted the most prominent area of risk for FDIC-insured institutions. There is a danger that commercial property losses, coupled with further impairment of residential real estate portfolios, could lead to a significant regional banking crisis.

Commercial Real Estate Bust

The commercial real estate sector is currently under the greatest stress since the CRE crash in the early 1990s. Following its normal pattern of lagging the residential housing cycle by approximately one year, the CRE sector peaked toward the end of 2007. Since then CRE prices have plunged by approximately 35%.

Oxford Analytica

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